Polarization Wins in Macron’s France

French President Emmanuel Macron can claim to have just about scraped through the closest thing France has to a mid-term election. After months of street protests against his economic reforms and his perceived detachment from the problems of regular French people, Macron’s progressive pro-European party came in second place in Sunday’s European Parliament elections, with an okay-ish 22% of the vote. His anti-EU nemesis Marine Le Pen came first, but only by a hair, winning more or less what she got in 2014. The big surprise of the night came from the Greens, who came in third.

What’s remarkable here is how badly the establishment center-left and center-right parties did – their combined score of around 15% was only slightly higher than the Greens’ – and how much identity politics has replaced traditional economic fault-lines in the French electorate. This doesn’t mean a big political earthquake short-term: There isn’t much pressure on Macron to reshuffle his government or scrap his reform agenda, and the lawmakers he sends to the European Parliament will end up cogs in a broader coalition-building machine. But divisions are becoming entrenched for the longer term.