The Rust Belt Stabilizes as the Sun Belt Tops Out

Americans tend to move from large, urban areas, particularly in the Northeast and the Midwest, toward suburban areas, particularly in the South and the West. After many decades of that kind of migration, a few big shifts are appearing: Some hard-hit Rust Belt metros are starting to show signs of stabilization, and the biggest Sun Belt metros are showing signs of strain as congestion gets worse and their affordability worsens.

For instance, even in the fastest-growing large metro areas in the country, all based in the South, their core urban counties are now seeing native-born Americans head for the exits in large numbers. In 2011, Harris County in the Houston metro area, Dallas County in Dallas, Fulton County in Atlanta, and Miami-Dade County in Miami took in a net 35,000 people in domestic migration. In 2018, they lost a combined 115,000 people on the same measure, with a steady deterioration in the years between. This is occurring even at a time when these metro areas have seen less exurban development than in the past cycle, and where their urban cores have been transformed by new apartments and moderate increases in density.