, Columnist
Another Reason to Worry About the Economy
Economists’ forecasts tend to diverge ahead of recessions. They’re diverging now.
Who knows?
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Will the U.S. dip into recession sometime in the coming year? Economists increasingly disagree on what will happen — and that in itself may be an ominous sign.
Every month, Bloomberg surveys dozens of economists — from banks, research firms, universities — on the outlook for the U.S. On average, as of Friday, they expected the economy to grow 2.2 percent during the next 12 months, adjusted for inflation. That said, there was a lot of variation, particularly on the down side: Predictions ranged from 3.2 percent growth to a 0.8 percent contraction. Here’s how that looks: