Barry Ritholtz, Columnist

Never Confuse Luck With Smart Investing

Huge one-time windfalls get a lot more attention than routine wins and losses.

What does this have in common with investing?

Photographer: Xaume Olleros/Bloomberg
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What can we learn from the case of someone who turned $100,000 in short-dated call options into a $2.5 million profit?

As detailed in MarketWatch earlier this month, trader Steve Oliverez was pretty sure the Republican tax overhaul was going to be approved by Congress. Working with a data set of one -- the 1987 tax overhaul -- he correctly surmised that passage would be bullish for stocks.