Hal Brands, Columnist

Trump Is Right on Venezuela, But It May End Badly

Coercive diplomacy may finally push President Maduro from power. Or it may lead to a civil war no one wants.

Rallying the faithful.

Photographer: Adriana Loureiro Fernandez/Bloomberg
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Donald Trump almost certainly doesn’t want to invade Venezuela. Despite ominous official statements about keeping all options on the table, a president who has repeatedly announced his intent to end America’s “endless wars” is presumably not itching to start another messy military conflict.

Instead, the administration is pursuing a strategy that blends coercive diplomacy with brinksmanship in an effort to break Nicolas Maduro’s hold on power. That strategy represents a fairly reasonable approach to addressing an intensifying moral, diplomatic and geopolitical crisis. But it also comes with risks that are themselves intensifying.