Russia's Growth Expectations Fall Back to Earth
The economic data for 2018 were surprisingly rosy. The outlook for this year is sharply less upbeat.
Kalashnikov’s arms are doing well.
Photographer: Sasha Mordovets/Getty Images
Whether or not you believe the Russian economy grew 2.3 percent last year, beating the most optimistic expectations, the Russian Economy Ministry doesn’t want anyone to expect a repeat in 2019. That doesn’t mean there will be no baffling statistical anomalies this year, only that, realistically, there’s no reason for a rapid economic expansion.
Russia’s official statistical agency, Rosstat, where a new boss took over in December, reported the surprising growth number earlier this month. It was in large part the result of a big upward revision of construction data for the remote Yamal region, where a large liquefied natural gas facility was finished last year. The size of the revision raised eyebrows and led to widespread disbelief about the numbers, including among economists close to the government.