Trump Gives Turkey a Double-Edged Gift
The withdrawal of U.S. forces from Syria and the offer of Patriot missile-defense systems could make things awkward for President Erdogan.
Fear the Americans bearing gifts.
Photographer: Bulent Kilic/AFP/Getty Images
Many see the Trump administration’s two big foreign-policy announcements on Wednesday — the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Syria, and the proposal to sell Patriot missiles to Turkey — as glad tidings for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. With American soldiers gone, Turkey can carry out Erdogan’s threat of a military offensive against Kurdish rebels in northeastern Syria. And the Patriot deal gives the Turkish leader military technology he has long sought.
On closer examination, however, the announcements represent a mixed blessing. A U.S. troop pullout would leave Turkey isolated in a triangular contest among regional powers for influence in Syria. The two other points of the triangle, Russia and Iran, don’t share Erdogan’s objectives. And the Patriot offer puts him in the position of having to choose between U.S. and Russian missile systems, knowing that the loser has the ability to hurt Turkey. And while an American withdrawal from Syria might indeed weaken the Kurds, it does not clear the path for a Turkish offensive — or guarantee its success.