Peak Tech Is a Tale of Evolution and Extinction
If the past is any indication, the long (and permanent) goodbye for fossil fuels has already begun.
There’s a reason you don’t see these much anymore.
Photographer: Christoph Schmidt/AFP/Getty Images
The history of technology is one of emergence, finding markets and eventually being challenged by other, newer platforms. New technologies can be tracked along an S-curve, starting from zero, growing slowly, then quickly, before hitting a natural plateau. These S-curves emerge in many different sectors, at both industrial and consumer scale. For an elegant illustration, we can look to the 90-year history of broadcasting licenses for radio and television in the U.K.
Each curve is steeper than the one before it. Only radio has a noticeable decline on the way to its peak, during World War II. For long-term planners in the energy sector who must consider the growth of particular technologies, the S-curve suggests a predictable path to peak deployment. What happens after that, though, is less predictable.