Could Democrats Take the Senate? Flip a Coin
If you think they have even odds to win a majority, there’s a 50-50 chance you’re right.
Heads or tails.
Photographer: joebelanger/iStockphotoThe conventional wisdom on Senate elections this year has emphasized how hard it will be for Democrats to capture 51 seats in November. They have many more seats to defend than Republicans have, and in states that are better for Republicans. So I was surprised to see this comment on Tuesday from Sean Trende of Real Clear Politics:
That rates a “wow” on the scale of informed Senate speculation. After all, National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar — who has been bullish on Democratic chances in the House — says that Republicans “control their destiny” in the sense of having to win only those contests they should win in order to retain their majority. The Crystal Ball’s Kyle Kondik says that a Democratic majority is “not impossible,” which is quite a bit worse than Trende’s 50-50.