Just How Big a Deal Is Gerrymandering, Anyway?

After the redistricting round that followed the 2010 census, pundits — especially liberal pundits — were quick to conclude that the Republican-dominated legislatures that produced the new maps had locked in Republican majorities in the House through at least the 2020 census. It’s still quite possible that Republicans will retain their House majority in November, but it’s clear now that the sense of inevitability was just plain wrong. After all, most analysts right now think Democrats are favored to gain the seats necessary to win back the House.

National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar has a worthwhile column out about the overrated effects of partisan gerrymandering. I think overall he’s just about correct. That said, it’s worth noting that even a narrow advantage created by drawing the lines can be quite important (and in fact gerrymandering may have been decisive in 2012, when Democrats fell 17 seats short despite winning a narrow plurality of the overall vote). It’s also true that Republicans right now may have a “natural” advantage in how their voters are distributed geographically, although line-drawing could at least theoretically adjust for that.