Aaron Brown, Columnist

Do This in Your NCAA Bracket. Not in Your Portfolio.

Focus on the upsets.

March 13, 2018 at 5:21 PM UTC

Aaron Brown is a former head of financial market research at AQR Capital Management. He is also an active crypto investor, and has venture capital investments and advisory ties with crypto firms.

It's on.
Photographer: Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

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The National Collegiate Athletic Association basketball tournament begins Thursday,1520957928253 so it's time for bracket pools.1520957954850 Yet most people approach their bracket picks in a flawed way, and these errors are much like those amateurs and professionals make in investment decisions.

Only upset picks matter.1520958024748 If you make too few of these, you're unlikely to win the pool even if you all your choices are correct. If you make too many1520958072767 picks, you're unlikely even to have more upset wins than losses. The key is picking the right number.