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Opinion
Megan McArdle

Sorry, Blue States: You Can't Fix the Tax Bill

In the end, federal deductibility changes maybe simply force New York, New Jersey and Connecticut to cut their rates to compete with red states.
Maybe New York can't afford to be New York anymore, without the big federal tax break.

Maybe New York can't afford to be New York anymore, without the big federal tax break.

Photographer: Spencer Platt/Getty Images

It’s an unhappy time to be a high-income professional in a blue state -- or their governor. The new tax law, which caps the deduction for state and local taxes at $10,000, amounts to a roughly one-third increase in their effective state-and-local tax rate. That will be an ugly hit to the pocketbook.

They will fiercely resist any attempt to raise taxes further, bad news for mayors and governors who are often facing big pension holes that are eventually going to need to be filled with taxpayer money. Worse still, they will probably put pressure on said politicians to lower taxes. And some of them may start shopping for residences in lower-tax locales, taking their valuable, taxable incomes with them if they go.