The Daily Prophet: Commodities Roiled as Arctic Blast Takes Hold
The bitter cold gripping much of North America may be making living conditions a bit uncomfortable, but for commodities traders it's a chance to profit. The Bloomberg Commodity Index has risen for 13 straight days, closing Tuesday at its highest level since last February on gains in energy and certain agricultural goods.
Prices for the heating fuel rose to the highest in a month as the U.S. burned the most natural gas ever on Monday, breaking a record set during the so-called polar vortex that blanketed the nation’s eastern half with arctic air in 2014, Bloomberg News reports. America consumed 143 billion cubic feet of gas as temperatures dipped to all-time lows on New Year’s Day, topping the previous high of 142 billion from four years ago, data from PointLogic Energy show. Ice in the Hudson River delayed fuel-barge deliveries, as the government warned of a home heating-fuel shortage from the East Coast to Texas. Natural gas prices have jumped 19 percent from a 10-month low on Dec. 21. U.S. retail diesel prices averaged $2.87 a gallon on New Year’s Day, the most since June 2015, according to AAA.
Beyond the energy sector, the cold weather is having an impact on wheat plants and cattle, according to Bloomberg News. March futures tracking both hard red winter wheat and soft red winter wheat climbed to the highest since early December in Chicago, while feeder-cattle futures rose as much as 4.5 cents, the exchange limit. Temperatures through Jan. 4 are forecast at 15 to 25 degrees below normal from the Southern Plains to Ohio Valley, according to the National Weather Service. The chill can also slow grain movement as ice builds on rivers and railways.
EQUITIES PICK UP WHERE THEY LEFT OFF
Stocks kicked off 2018 on a positive note, as U.S. equities led the MSCI All-Country World Index to its best start since 2013. To the bears, every move higher only serves to underscore a growing divergence between stocks and sentiment. State Street Global Markets' index of institutional investor confidence, which differs from survey-based measures in that it is based on the actual trades, as opposed to opinions, fell for a fifth straight month in December, the firm said last week. What's jarring is how the measure has fallen as the MSCI index of stocks has soared, after largely moving in line with the benchmark in the first half of 2017. The latest reading of 94.8 puts State Street's the index further below 100, which is "neutral," or where investors are neither increasing nor decreasing their long-term allocations to risky assets. By region, sentiment fell in both North America and Asia, but rose strongly in Europe in what State Street said is a sign that that European-based investors are becoming less concerned that political risks could derail the strong economic performance in that region.