Tom Orlik, Columnist

China's Future, Reshaped by Robots

Automation may upend the prevailing wisdom.

August 23, 2017 at 9:00 PM UTC

Tom Orlik is the chief economist for Bloomberg Economics. He’s the author of “Understanding China’s Economic Indicators,” a guide to China’s economic data. He’s based in Washington, DC, following more than a decade in Beijing.

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Speak to China experts these days and you typically get one of two contrasting views on its outlook. The prevailing wisdom is that an unreformed state-industrial sector and rising debt mean it is on an unsustainable path, with a financial crisis on the not-too-distant horizon. The optimists acknowledge that debt is too high, but hold out hope that a growing services sector will fuel stronger consumption, reducing the need for credit-fueled investment and putting the economy on a sustainable path for the medium-term.

What if they're both wrong?