Tim Duy, Columnist

Anxious About the Economy? It'll Still Set a Record

The economy is far more resilient to negative shocks than bears like to believe.

June 5, 2017 at 9:00 AM UTC

Tim Duy is a professor of practice and senior director of the Oregon Economic Forum at the University of Oregon and the author of Tim Duy's Fed Watch.

Current economic expansion is about become the longest on record.
Photographer: Jonathan Daniel

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The current U.S. economic expansion is one of the longest on record. The longer it lasts, the more likely growth will become tepid and uneven, raising angst about its sustainability. See the May employment report, with its disappointing 138,000 gain in payrolls, downward revisions to previous months, and soft wage growth. Yet, at the same time, the unemployment rate fell to the lowest level since 2001. Anxiety is elevated with speculation that the Trump administration's pro-growth, fiscal stimulus plans are on the ropes.

Don't be nervous. It might be a bit early to make this call, but I will make it anyway: I have trouble putting anything more than trivial odds on a recession in 2018, or even 2019. At this point, the best bet is that this expansion, which started in 2009, at least ties -- if not beats -- the current record of 10 years.