For Democratic Hopefuls, the Deep South Is a Winner

If the past 25 years of Democratic presidential nomination contests are any guide, the process for 2020 will follow a familiar pattern: One candidate will dominate the Deep South and walk away with the nod, and everyone else will whine about how they got screwed by the party establishment. You'd be forgiven if this isn't what you've been led to believe by stories about the early contenders, which are often framed as a battle between an insider-friendly choice from a wealthy urban coastal area (like Hillary Clinton) and a champion of the white working class and rural America (like Bernie Sanders).

The truth is, while recent party nominees John Kerry, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton hailed from large urban areas, it's the Deep South that ultimately anointed them. Going back to 1992, seven states have voted for the Democratic Party's eventual nominee every time -- Illinois and Missouri in the Midwest; Virginia; and the four Southern states of Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana. If John Edwards hadn't won his home turf of North and South Carolina in 2004, we could add those two to the list. Washington, D.C., has a perfect record as well.