Social Unrest Is France's Biggest Risk

With such high turnout in Sunday’s first-round presidential vote, one thing that would seem to be working in France is democracy. But a recent survey revealed that 70 percent of French voters believe that democracy does not work well in France. Only 11 percent trust political parties and 24 percent trust the media (the army and police are the exception, with close to 80 percent support). In this context, the big question facing the next French president is whether he -- as it almost certainly will be Emmanuel Macron -- can keep the social peace in a country that is seething with divisions and has a long history of airing them on the streets.

The signs of pent-up social discontent are everywhere. Some 63 percent of young French claim to be ready for a “large-scale revolt.” The head of France’s general directorate for internal security warned, in a parliamentary commission deposition last year, that the country was “on the verge of civil war.” The numbers of days lost to strike action is the largest among comparable countries; 40,000 cars are set ablaze annually in France’s often ghettoized suburbs. The portion of voters who rejected mainstream political offerings -- over 40 percent -- was higher than at any time in France’s modern political history, revealing a much deeper level of discontent than previously acknowledged.