Jens Nordvig, Columnist

Le Pen Victory Worries Some Investors a Lot More Than Others

Equity investors learned in 2016 not to panic in the face of political risk.

Changing of the guard.

Photographer: Christophe Archambault
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The first round of the French elections takes center stage this weekend and investors around the world will be watching closely. The key concern is whether the far-right and euroskeptic candidate Marine Le Pen -- who has promised to renegotiate France’s relationship with the European Union and call a "Frexit" referendum within six months -- will become the next president.

A victory by Le Pen is not altogether improbable. She is running neck-and-neck with Emmanuel Macron, an independent, and the current four-way race opens up several possibilities about who she may face in a second round. While her polling gap versus Macron is very large in the second round, and seems hard to close in just two weeks, Le Pen could have a better shot versus some opponents such as Francois Fillon of the center-right Republicans and the Communist-backed Jean-Luc Melenchon.