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Tyler Cowen

One Fact Constraining Globalization: It's a Big Planet

Trade is remarkably resilient among neighboring countries.
It only looks small from here.
Source: NASA

As the Trump administration continues to evolve, one lesson is that globalized economic trade relations are probably more stable than they might have appeared at first. Most of the talk of trade wars is dwindling, the proposed renegotiation of Nafta seems to be minor, and the Mexican peso and stock market have bounced back since Donald Trump’s election.

Yet none of those developments should come as major surprises. Globalization probably won’t contract much because globalization, at least in the form of international trade, didn’t proceed as far as many people had thought. In fact, the ability of trade to surmount barriers of distance probably never went up in the first place. One implication is that nearby trade, including trade with Mexico, is remarkably robust.