, Columnist
Political Prediction Isn't Dead. But It Needs to Adapt
Changing political attitudes are drawing a different demographic to the ballot box.
It's getting harder to predict which box he'll tick.
Photographer: Simon Dawson/BloombergThis article is for subscribers only.
2016 has been difficult for the political data industry. Predictions have been confounded and data-driven campaigns have fallen short. While the mishaps have sometimes involved small errors in contests that happened both to be close and hugely significant, quantitative analysis has lost its mojo and is under fire.