Mohamed A. El-Erian , Columnist

Don't Ignore This Jobs Report, Even Though a Rate Hike Is Certain

Markets have priced in an increase in December, but the employment numbers could signal what the Fed will do after that.

December 1, 2016 at 7:00 AM UTC

By Mohamed A. El-Erian

Mohamed A. El-Erian is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. A former chief executive officer of Pimco, he is president of Queens’ College, Cambridge; chief economic adviser at Allianz SE; and chair of Gramercy Fund Management. He is author of “The Only Game in Town.”

Baked in the cake.
Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg

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The monthly U.S. jobs report for November that will be released on Friday is unlikely to be so bad that the Federal Open Market Committee would upset market expectations and refrain from hiking interest rates in mid-December. Instead, the data are likely to validate what fixed-income markets have already priced in when it comes to short-term interest rates.

The report, however, could contain insights that help shed light on the subsequent path of policy interest rates.