Hey Oil Market: Forget About OPEC for a Second
Instead of supply, the real question is about the future source of demand.
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The oil market's attention is focused overwhelmingly on figuring out which OPEC member is going to cut what. The bigger question it shouldn't lose sight of is this: Who will replace China?
Looking back over 50 years, oil demand has gone through three broad phases: pre-1970s industrialization in the OECD countries, retrenchment after the oil shocks, and then renewed growth through 2015. If the International Energy Agency's latest long-range forecasts are right, then we stand on the edge of another slowdown in demand growth -- a big one.