, Columnist
Relax! The U.S. Recovery Is Just Getting Started
The end of the last downturn was more like coming out of a depression than beginning an expansion.
Housing is still emerging from its long lull.
Photographer: Jason Alden/BloombergThis article is for subscribers only.
The next president could face a recession. Or not. Some of the forecasts saying this current expansion is running out of time misunderstand when the expansion began.
The National Bureau of Economic Research marked the end of the last recession at June 2009. Similarly, the stock market hit bottom in the first half of 2009. The four-week moving average of initial jobless claims peaked in April that year. And the unemployment rate peaked in October. All of these suggest a broad-based trough at some point during 2009, making the economic expansion at least seven years old by now.