, Columnist
Don't Believe the Good Economic News About Brexit
Even if there's no recession, the damage will be heavy and long-lasting.
Be careful what you wish for.
Photographer: JUSTIN TALLIS/AFP/Getty ImagesThis article is for subscribers only.
With the arrival of positive manufacturing and services reports from the U.K., it seems that the British economy is doing fine. There's dwindling talk of a recession caused by the vote the leave the European Union, and British politicians are wondering if a “hard Brexit” option –rapid withdrawal from Europe without a new trade agreement – might be feasible.
The answer is no. Such views rest upon bad economic reasoning and the cost of Brexit remains high, albeit mostly invisible for the time being.