Fewer Nukes Could Make the World Less Safe

Tony Schwartz, ghostwriter of Donald Trump’s book “The Art of the Deal,” recently issued a dire warning about the man he worked for. “I genuinely believe that if Trump wins and gets the nuclear codes there is an excellent possibility it will lead to the end of civilization,” Schwartz declared. Whether Schwartz is exaggerating the danger, talk of the risk of nuclear war seems to be more common these days. With tensions rising with China and Russia, it’s a good time to revisit a grim topic that many wish had vanished with the end of the Cold War.

First, the good news, at least at some level: Humanity is no longer in danger of extinction. Nuclear stockpiles in the U.S. and Russia have declined a lot since the end of the Cold War. In the late 1980s, the two superpowers had about 64,000 nukes between them -- now, it’s down to less than 10,000. Of those weapons however, only a subset are actively deployed, and can thus be used at a moment’s notice. Here are the numbers as of 2015 (all figures listed are upper-bound estimates):