America's in Danger of Imperial Overstretch

Twenty-nine years ago, historian Paul Kennedy coined the term "imperial overstretch" to describe what happens to great powers when their global commitments become too expensive to sustain. He also suggested that the U.S., which at the time was in the midst of a defense-spending boom under Ronald Reagan, might be overstretching things a bit.

A lot of the points Kennedy made in the forward-looking final chapter of "The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000" seem prescient today: The Soviet Union suffered from a much more extreme case of overstretch than the U.S., he argued. Check. The focus of global economic activity was going to shift toward Asia, with China becoming one of the world's leading economies. Check. The U.S. would continue to be beset by fiscal deficits, disappearing blue-collar jobs and declining relative economic power. Check.