Gary Shilling, Columnist

What's India Got Over China? Plenty.

More emphasis on services than manufacturing has served India well.

June 3, 2016 at 1:03 AM UTC

Gary Shilling is president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., a consultancy. He is author of “The Age of Deleveraging: Investment Strategies for a Decade of Slow Growth and Deflation.”

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When Narendra Modi, the prime minister of India, speaks to a joint session of the U.S. Congress on June 8, he may find it hard to convince lawmakers of his country's promise. He shouldn't: As China, Russia and Brazil slow down, India is barreling ahead. It's one of the brighter spots among all the emerging markets.

True, India's economic growth in the last 25 years has been slower than China's. India's growth rose to almost 11 percent of U.S. gross domestic product in 2014 from about 4 percent in 1990, while China’s vaulted to 60 percent from 9 percent in the same period. But unlike China, India never became an export-driven manufacturing juggernaut and so its growth has been steadier. Last year it was 7.5 percent.