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Barry Ritholtz

The End Is Nigh! Oops. That Was Only a Forecast.

It didn't take long for a prediction that got lots of attention to be proven wrong.
Saying she will come down isn't a forecast.

Saying she will come down isn't a forecast.

Photographer: Panayiotis Tzamaros/Pacific Press/Light Rocket/Getty Images

Last month, we discussed the fun geeks were having with the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta’s GDPNow. It’s a fun little tool designed to give an early read of where U.S. gross domestic product is headed. Some detractors had pointed out that it often was too negative. Enter the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; it too got into the nowcasting game, with a model that seemed more upbeat than GDPNow.

I was reminded of this recently courtesy of my Bloomberg colleague Joe Weisenthal,  who tweeted that he “hadn't seen any mentions of the Atlanta Fed's GDPNowcast in awhile.” The reason being that the selection bias of the economic bears was such that they only showed whatever cherry picked data supported their preexisting views. Similarly, economic bulls have the NewYork Fed's Nowcast to support their own preconceived biases.