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Barry Ritholtz

A Better Way to Think About Stock Prices

Consider the range of likely outcomes.
Something to consider.

Something to consider.

Photographer: Emmanuel Dunand/AFP/Getty Images)

Traders returning to their desks after the long holiday weekend will be greeted by the continuing Greek saga, a guessing game about when the Federal Reserve will raise rates and a megamerger in the cable industry. But the debate I am much more interested in is the one taking place about U.S. stock valuations. It is more significant, and not as well understood as those other discussions.

The bears have been saying for some time now that stocks are at best fully valued, meaning there isn't much room for gains after equities more than tripled from their March 2009 lows. The ursine argument is that low future returns are a given, and an ugly crash is the worst-case scenario.