My Prediction: Your Forecast Is Wrong

On this day in 1993, the Wall Street Journal published a survey of 10 market pundits. They had been asked when the bull market that started in 1982 would end. Most of the forecasters predicted a 10 percent market decline -- hardly a bold position because 10 percent declines occur fairly often, about once a year on average. However, Joe Granville, among the most heralded market forecaster of his generation, declared that the bull run was over, and he foresaw the Dow Jones Industrial Average, then approaching 3,700, declining to 2,900 by the spring of 1994. Instead, the Dow went the opposite way, rising to almost 3,800 by year-end.

I was reminded of this yesterday, courtesy of this article by Bloomberg News: "Predictors of ’29 Crash See 65% Chance of 2015 Recession." Regular readers might recall that I have some issues with both forecasts and forecasters.