Carl Icahn's Poker Buddy's Golf Buddy Never Traded Clorox Stock

When the news broke last week that the FBI was investigating Phil Mickelson for trading Clorox stock on indirect inside information from Carl Icahn, I thought that the most interesting question was, who leaked it to the press, and why? Now that it turns out not to be true -- there's some truth-adjacency, but Mickelson never traded Clorox on a tip or, apparently, otherwise -- that question gets even more interesting.

Were the "people briefed on the matter" who got it wrong at the FBI, as I first assumed? They would presumably have publicized the investigation to shake out information and/or to punish Mickelson (and Icahn, and gambler Billy Walters, the supposed intermediary between them) in the press because they couldn't get him in court. In that case ... I don't know, I was going to say "in that case it worked out badly," but that's not really true. The thing is, the standard of proof for trying someone in the court of public opinion really is lower than the standard in the court of court. Mickelson is still being investigated for something -- well-timed trading in Dean Foods stock just before it split off a subsidiary1 -- and Icahn and Walters are still perhaps in trouble over Clorox. Even if each individual trade that the prosecutors are looking into turns out to be innocent, they've done some damage just by publicizing the investigation and standing around raising their eyebrows.