How to Defeat North Korea

April 12 (Bloomberg) -- Let’s start with the bad news: TheNorth Korean problem has no simple or quick solution. TheNorth’s weapons-grade plutonium and nuclear devices have alreadybeen manufactured, and are now safely hidden in undergroundfacilities. China, and to a lesser degree Russia, remainsunwilling to support a truly rigorous (read: efficient)sanctions regime. More narrow financial sanctions that targetthe money used to reward regime insiders with perks, likebottles of Hennessy cognac and Mercedes cars, won’t have muchimpact. Most of the North Korean elite believe that regimestability is a basic condition for their survival. No doubt,they would be willing to put up with locally produced liquor andused Toyotas if the alternative was being strung from thelampposts.

More international aid would be most welcome in Pyongyang,no doubt -- but not enough for the regime to give up its nuclearprogram. Once the money was spent (and it would be spentquickly), a nonnuclear North Korea would be just anotherimpoverished country, competing for attention with places suchas Sudan and Zimbabwe. A U.S. security guarantee -- anothercarrot held out by some in Washington -- wouldn’t be any moreenticing. North Koreans don’t believe in the value offoreigners’ promises, especially when such promises are made indemocratic systems where leaders and policies change every fewyears.