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Gary Shilling

Will U.S. Avoid Recession in 2012? (Part 1)

For several months, I’ve been forecasting a recession in the U.S. this year, arguing that weakened consumer spending -- the key to the economic outlook -- would tip the economy back into a downturn.

But what about recent positive data and markets? Do they affect my forecast? Bullish investors will say I’m wrong, pointing to the 29 percent increase in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index from its October 2011 low.