When the euro was being created, the economics profession split into three groups -- enthusiasts, opponents and realists -- that predicted wildly different costs and benefits for the project. By 2007, when the young currency was thriving, the enthusiasts declared a premature victory. Now it’s the turn of the opponents, and they are, of course, wrong.
I say “of course” because currencies are meant to exist for centuries. Their performance cannot be judged after five or 15 years. It’s understandable that people who felt a strong prejudice for or against the euro’s existence should feel the itch to make a point when things turn their way, but the point is bound to be misleading, and intentionally so. The reality, however, is that changes in the broad flow of history, which the euro certainly was, require a much longer view. If you want to prove your case early, you need to abuse the data.
