That Recession Forecast? Yield Curve Says No Way: Caroline Baum
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May 27 (Bloomberg) -- Green shoots are proliferating ingardens across America, but for some forecasters it alreadylooks like the end of summer. A few are even hinting atrecession by year-end. That’s highly unlikely.
While black swans have gained a new cachet following theprices-can’t-fall-nationwide housing bust and the financialmeltdown it triggered, the most important leading indicator, theyield curve, is saying there will be no recession anytime soon.