The Everything Risk

Tech’s Fast and Narrow Rally Is on Shaky Ground

The stock market has too much riding on a volatile and cyclical industry.
Micron Technology, PNY, and others on the exhibition floor during the Nvidia GTC conference. Chipmakers are leading the next leg of the AI stock rally,Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg
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The latest chapter in the artificial intelligence bull market has more of the hallmarks of the kind of euphoria that can lead to its own demise. That’s because it largely relies on the cyclical semiconductor industry.

Back in August, Oaktree Capital Management Co-Founder Howard Marks told Bloomberg Television that the last time stocks were this expensive relative to reality was around 1997, “and the market went on to rally for another three years.”