Floundering Rupee May Keep Indian Equities on a Tight Leash

Good morning...

I’m Rajesh Mascarenhas in Mumbai and here’s what’s setting the tone for markets.

As the war in Iran drags on and oil prices stay elevated, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has a message for Indians: cut fuel use. The appeal reflects an increasingly difficult backdrop for India as a weakening rupee (more on that below) and persistent equity outflows add to pressure on an economy heavily dependent on imported crude. Measures from the pandemic such as working from home and online meetings should be revived, Modi said on Sunday evening, while also urging citizens to help conserve foreign-exchange reserves by avoiding unnecessary overseas travel, and weddings abroad.

Oil surged on Monday after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s latest response to his proposal to end the war in the Middle East, prolonging the effective closure of the crucial Strait of Hormuz.

The Nifty posted a second weekly gain on Friday but continues to trail the broader Asian benchmark. April inflation data and earnings from major companies including Tata Power, Bharti Airtel, and Hindustan Petroleum will be in focus this week.

In today’s newsletter, we look at: