UAE Quits OPEC Just as War on Iran Throws Markets Into Turmoil

The United Arab Emirates will leave OPEC after six decades of membership, dealing a significant blow to the group just as the supply disruption caused by the Iran war roils oil markets. The UAE was the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries’ third-biggest producer before the conflict started, accounting for about 12% of its overall supply.

Longstanding tensions with Saudi Arabia led the UAE to talk in the past about quitting the group. But now, Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei told us the war’s disruptive impact means its a good time to chart its own path in energy markets.

The UAE’s decision to quit OPEC will likely have limited impact in the short term, as the war chokes off crude supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices are still elevated at over $110 a barrel. But Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said it could impact “Saudi Arabia’s role as the market’s central stabilizer.” Our columnist Javier Blas calls it “the biggest existential crisis” OPEC has ever faced.

Iran has signaled it may be willing to accept an interim deal to reopen the strait in exchange for an end to the blockade, but US President Donald Trump and his national security team are skeptical of its proposal, the Wall Street Journal reported. — Philip Lagerkranser

A bad day for OpenAI-linked stocks: Shares in the ChatGPT maker’s partners like SoftBank and Oracle tumbled after reports that the company failed to meet targets for sales and new users. The news also hit other stocks seen as proxies for OpenAI, which isn’t publicly traded, as well as bonds linked to data-center firms. OpenAI was said to have missed several monthly sales target this year as competitor Anthropic gained ground.