Markets Daily India

Oil Spike Is Clouding the Outlook for Indian Bank Earnings, Interest Rates

Lenders’ profits could fall by 4% to 8% in the year to March 2027: UBS

The Reserve Bank of India headquarters in Mumbai.Photographer: Dhiraj Singh/Bloomberg

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By Pratigya Vajpayee and Ashutosh Joshi

March 9, 2026 at 2:45 AM UTC

This article is for subscribers only.

Good morning...

I’m Ashutosh Joshi, with a quick pulse check as markets kick off the week.

The mood is tense in Asia this Monday morning as the Middle East conflict extends into its second week. Oil has surged above $100 a barrel, Asian stocks are witnessing a sharp selloff, and even gold prices are falling amid a stronger dollar. A slide of more than 2% in Nifty 50 futures points to a weak start for local shares after the benchmark capped its worst weekly loss in a year on Friday. The implications of higher fuel costs are far-reaching for the nation, which imports most of its energy needs. Markets are already concerned about the impact on bank earnings and the interest-rate outlook. Shares of state-owned refiners will be in focus after the government raised cooking gas prices on the weekend for the first time in nearly a year. Traders will also keep an eye on the upcoming CPI inflation data for direction.

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