Global Signs of Strain With a Silver Lining

The International Monetary Fund is warning that the global economy is showing signs of strain, and the main reason for it is US policy. Specifically the sweeping tariffs and protectionism emanating from Donald Trump’s global trade war. But there’s a silver lining, apparently.

As bad as things are, they’re not as bad as expected—at least not yet, the IMF said. The global economy is expected to grow by 3.2% this year, up from 3% predicted in July. The upgraded forecast is largely due to a burst in activity as companies and households rushed to get goods in anticipation of high tariffs, as well as a weaker dollar that juiced trade. “It’s not as bad as we feared,” IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said. “But it’s worse than we anticipated a year ago and worse than we need.”