Everything Risk

Everyone Says Equities Are Overvalued, So They’re Piling In

The New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).The recent earnings season has seen stocks climb to all-time highs, with traders expecting rate cuts and fearing inflation from tariffs significantly less.

Photographer: Michael Nagle/Bloomberg
Lock
This article is for subscribers only.

We’re in the unusual situation where fund managers almost uniformly say US stocks are overvalued, yet everyone is piling in. This disconnect, as the S&P 500 Index sets repeated all-time highs, is the market’s biggest vulnerability going forward.

At the first sign of trouble — for example if tariffs do ultimately lift consumer prices and derail expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts -- they’re liable to sell. And it’s a risk the market may have to contend with in the next few months.

To get a sense of the latest positioning, look at the most recent Bank of America Global Fund Survey results.