Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Americas

Good morning. Jay Powell could be hawkish this week, Elon Musk makes a successful trip to China and Japan’s yen goes wild during a holiday. Here’s what people are talking about. — Sofia Horta e Costa

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It’s Fed decision week and markets will be debating the timing of the central bank’s first interest-rate cut. No change is expected on Wednesday, marking a big shift from a few months ago when consensus was calling for the rate-cut cycle to begin in May. For the latest Big Take, the team at Bloomberg Economics has built a tool that tracks news headlines on Fed speeches and press conferences, scoring them on a scale from ultra-hawkish to super-dovish. At the moment it’s tilting hawkish — and the team thinks the Fed Chair could endorse the recent upward move in bond yields perhaps as soon as this week. Swaps traders now see only one Fed reduction for all of 2024.