How Geopolitics Might Crash a 2024 Soft Landing
A Ukrainian soldier looks out from a tank near the town of Bakhmut, Ukraine, on Dec. 13.
Photographer: Anatolii Stepanov/AFP
The economic soft landing for the US-led developed world, ridiculed as an unrealistic hope by many over the past year, looks more likely than ever as 2023 comes to a close. But looking forward to 2024, geopolitics looms as a potential spoiler. Let us count the ways.
For the moment, Russia’s war on Ukraine seems to be at a stalemate, the Israel-Hamas conflict remains mostly localized (though that may soon change) and the temperature of the US-China rivalry is cooling somewhat after a face-to-face between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping. But any or all of these geopolitical dynamics could change for the worse next year, affecting swathes of the global economy.