Your Evening Briefing: Shutdown Threatens ‘Gold Standard’ Economic Data

With two days left before a likely US government shutdown, more collateral damage is coming into view. The refusal by far-right Republicans to deal also threatens to delay publication of key economic data—something that will test the trust of policymakers and investors in less-regarded economic indicators. Without critical figures like the Labor Department’s monthly employment report and a key inflation gauge from the Commerce Department, data from private-sector sources will move into the spotlight. Some of these indicators—including gauges of business activity from the Institute for Supply Management, private payrolls from ADP Research Institute and existing-home sales from the National Association of Realtors—have informed Federal Reserve officials in their quest to tame the worst inflation in a generation. Others do so indirectly by feeding into government reports. Yet, when any policy missteps could be enough to derail America’s seeming path to a soft landing, the Fed’s emphasis on decisions as “data dependent” becomes more precarious. “It’s not like there are all these perfect substitutes laying around,” said Michael Pugliese, a senior economist at Wells Fargo. “It’s hard to replace both the quantity and the quality of that gold-standard data.”

Federal prosecutors charged a former employee of Goldman Sachs and Blackstone with securities fraud for allegedly tipping his friends to more than half a dozen deals. The charges detail how the group made more than $400,000 on trades passed around on messaging apps like Signal as well as Xbox chat. The latest complaint marks at least the fifth incident involving a Goldman Sachs employee in recent years.

BlackRock is the latest exchange-traded fund issuer to try and clone JPMorgan’s biggest active strategy. The BlackRock Advantage Large Cap Income ETF tracks dividend-paying stocks in addition to selling S&P 500 call options. The new fund resembles the $29 billion JPMorgan Equity Premium Income ETF, which has already spurred a bunch of copycats.