China’s Growth Juggernaut Comes With a Caveat

Shoppers earlier this month walking along Nanjing East Road, one of Shanghai’s main commercial and tourist area. Chinese consumers are being encouraged to spend their money domestically.

Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg

China is often described—including by Chinese officials—as an engine for global growth. The International Monetary Fund in April said the nation will be the top contributor over the next five years, with a share double that of the US.

But this is misleading. Consider the equation, 6+4=10. Mathematically, six is doing more to make 10 than four is. But six isn’t doing anything for four.