Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day

Economists puzzle over a US recession, Microsoft delivers a warning on corporate demand and Wall Street banks make a move on talent. — Kristine Aquino

Predicting a recession this cycle is proving to be more confounding than ever. Sectors such as manufacturing, housing and technology are probably already in recession, while industrial and construction employment remains elevated. "The signals are mixed in way we haven't seen before," according to Claudia Sahm, an economist. Other indicators are being scrutinized for recessionary signs but many suffer from having an insufficient track record, meaning their reliability is less known. The bond market, though, has already been pricing in Fed rate cuts later this year. And traders have been increasingly hedging the possibility that the rate hike in February will be the last before a pause beginning in March.