Next China: Taiwan Conundrum
US President Joe Biden listens as US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi speaks during the House Democratic Caucus Issues Conference meeting in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on March 11.
Will she or won’t she?
US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s possible trip to Taiwan is still up in the air as she prepares to depart for the Asia-Pacific region, a day after President Joe Biden and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping spoke and warned each other about risks of a confrontation over the island.
Pelosi is set to leave for the trip Friday, but it’s not clear whether her stops will include the democratically ruled island, according to a person familiar with the situation. Another person said her itinerary is set to include stops in Japan, Indonesia and Singapore.
No issue has the potential to send US-China relations back to the Stone Age more than Taiwan, which Beijing considers part of its territory. American politicians from both sides of the aisle have been telling Pelosi not to back down from a visit, which would be the first by a sitting US speaker since Newt Gingrich traveled there in 1997. But Biden raised doubts last week by saying that the military thinks the trip is “not a good idea right now.”
If Pelosi goes, China has vowed to take a “resolute and strong” response. Some speculate that at a minimum this could mean a ramping up of military activities near Taiwan, including incursions into the island’s air defense identification zone and flights across the median line that divides the Taiwan Strait.