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It’s a fool’s errand to predict what the next 25 years will look like. If the pandemic has taught us anything, it’s that we barely know what next month will bring.

But in the case of Hong Kong, which next week marks the 25-year anniversary of its handover to China, forecasts abound. Ongoing Covid restrictions have undoubtedly weakened the city’s status as a major financial hub, but for many the passing of Xi Jinping’s national security law in 2020 was what cemented the direction of the years to come.