Tracking Global Trade Is About to Get Very Messy

As we get deeper into a sloppy, prolonged period for economic activity and the data-gazing that follows it, keep an eye on electronics for signs of underlying trade momentum.

Lunar New Year is always a wild time to make year-on-year comparisons, as the calendar shifts wreak havoc on our monthly gauges. The Bloomberg Trade Tracker shows that major ports in Los Angeles, Singapore and Hong Kong slipped in January from a year earlier after finishing 2020 on a high note — though some of that demand may have been pulled into December. Best to wait several more weeks to see where the numbers settle after the holiday in Asia, which serves as a seasonal reset button for global supply chains.