America’s Top Consumer-Sentiment Economist Is Worried

Every month, thousands of randomly selected Americans get a letter in the mail from the University of Michigan asking how they’re feeling. This year their answers have been pretty unambiguous: bad.

They’ve been feeling bad about prices, bad about business conditions. Bad about their incomes and job security, the housing and stock markets. They’ve felt so bad, in fact, that Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment was stuck at one of its worst readings on record for two months this spring after plunging 29% in the first four months of 2025. Over the 79 years of the survey, a drop this large this fast has almost always predicted a recession. Sentiment readings improved slightly at the start of June but still indicate Americans expect much higher prices and a much slower economy in the coming year.